8/14 Chicago Cubs @ Cleveland Guardians 6:40pm EST

Over 8 -136 (1u)

We head to Cleveland in this one to exploit what we believe is a favorable matchup for runs here tonight. We get Jameson Taillon with a 3.50 ERA and 1.18 WHIP against Alex Cobb 7.71 ERA and 2.14 WHIP (1 start). The Guardians have had some good success against Taillon historically, hitting .302 in 43 ABs. There have been no matchups between them this year, but Taillon has been a littl eratic as of late, surrendering 5 runs to the White Sox and 6 to the Reds in 2 of his last 4 starts. The Guardians have shown that they are capable of putting up runs on the year, ranked 12th overall in the league. The first two games of this series have been very different, with the Guardians winning 9-8 in Game 1 and 2-1 in Game 2. We expect this one to fall somewhere in the middle, around 6-3 or 5-4 as both teams sent their better pitchers to the mound last night.

As for Alex Cobb, he has only made on start on the year, and that was 5 days ago agains the Twins, where he went 4.2 innings, allowing 9 hits and 5 runs. The Cubs have been much better about scoring runs as of late, with 34 in their last 6 games. While there will be a 10mph wind blowing in, we think that this creates the opportunity for extra base hits. These bullpens for both teams are definitely good, so we want to see some early runs here, but think that this is worth a unit at the very least. We would love to see a 4-4 game here.